The Taliban and their potential international partners: what are the advantages for them?

As the Taliban advance the troubled process of forming a new organization to rule Afghanistan, much speculation has focused on which countries would be invited to an inauguration ceremony and whether this waiver would be recognized by the International community.

An unnamed Taliban official was quoted by Al-Jazeera on Monday as saying the group invited China, Iran, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia and Turkey to participate in a ceremony to announce the composition of the new regime. Later in the day, spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid confirmed that several countries, including Turkey, China and Russia, had been invited to the ceremony.

If all six countries accepted the reported invitations, the new regime would be recognized by exactly double the number of countries that accepted the Taliban’s latest dispensation. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which along with Pakistan were part of the small group that recognized the Taliban emirate of the 1990s, did not win an invitation to the ceremony.

Read also | Taliban say they “want” to join China-Pakistan economic corridor projects

Here is an overview of the issues these six countries have in Afghanistan and why the Taliban would be keen to engage with them.

Here is an overview of the issues these six countries have in Afghanistan and why the Taliban would be keen to engage with them.

China is the new player on the block in Afghanistan, with reported interests ranging from security to natural resources. A presence in Afghanistan would dovetail with China’s desire to further expand its influence in the region, while opposing India, with which it is currently locked in a military stalemate along the actual Line of Control ( LAKE).

China spoke of the need to ensure that Afghan soil is not used for terrorism, but as part of the fight against the Islamic Movement in East Turkestan, which Beijing says poses a threat to the Xinjiang region. Pakistan sees its all-weather ally, China, as the ideal partner in a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and there have been numerous reports that China is eyeing Afghanistan’s natural resources including copper, gold and about 1.4 million tonnes of rare earth minerals. China and its ally Pakistan have publicly announced their intention to extend the Sino-Pakistani economic corridor to Afghanistan to give impetus to the key project of the Belt and Road Initiative which is at a standstill over the past two years.

The Taliban believe that recognition by China would give their regime in Kabul a semblance of respectability and legitimacy, and the group’s leaders have been busy praising China as a potential development partner. China has been timid on the issue of recognizing the Taliban, with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson on Monday presenting Beijing’s usual line of supporting the Afghan people in independently choosing a development path and forming an open, inclusive government. and representative.

Iran is exploring the possibility of expanding its presence in Afghanistan after being one of the first countries in the region to secretly open channels of communication with the Taliban more than three years ago. He hosted several high-level Taliban delegations for talks, and Iranian officials spoke privately of their need to communicate with the Taliban to ensure stability in key border provinces such as South Khorasan and Sistan-Baluchestan. Iran is also keen to protect the interests of Afghanistan’s Hazara Shiite minority, which represents around 10% of the population. The Hazaras have been targeted by the Taliban in the past, and more recently they have been the target of devastating suicide bombings by the Islamic State-Khorasan.

For the Taliban, recognition or cooperation with Iran is likely aimed at reducing the possibility of interference from Tehran as the group prepares to consolidate its grip on power. Last year, the Taliban even resorted to the symbolic step of appointing their first Shiite Hazara commander.

However, Iran has indicated that its support cannot be taken for granted. President Ebrahim Raisi said on Iranian state television on Saturday that the Afghan people should have a say in determining their country’s future through elections which should be held as soon as possible, while the foreign ministry spokesman on Monday condemned Taliban attacks in Panjshir, the only recalcitrant province in Afghanistan, and said Iran was investigating “foreign intervention” in the region.

Pakistan has long been the sole supporter and benefactor of the Taliban, especially after the group’s regime was overthrown in the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. It housed the main Taliban military commanders, including those of Quetta Shura and the network Haqqani, along with the Pakistani military, formed and supported the group in a relationship that dates back more than two decades. Indian and US officials believe that the advice and logistical support of the Pakistani military played a key role in the Taliban’s recent victory after lightning advances in rural areas of Afghanistan. Pakistan supported the Taliban as part of its long-standing and flawed strategy of “strategic depth” which was largely aimed at eliminating India’s presence in Afghanistan. The Pakistani military’s belief in victory in Afghanistan was reflected in the very public manner in which the head of the inter-agency intelligence agency, Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed, held his tribunal in the lobby of a hotel in Kabul this week.

The Taliban, experts say, are not behaving monolithically in their dealings with Pakistan. In recent years, some Taliban leaders, including Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and Sher Mohammed Abbas Stanekzai, have made efforts to reach out to other countries in the region to reduce the group’s dependence on Pakistan. . These leaders apparently believe these new relationships will create space for the Taliban to maneuver in a complicated neighborhood. However, most of the commanders on the ground have close ties to the Pakistani army and it has been reported that Mullah Mohammed Yaqoob, the eldest son of the founder of the Taliban, Mullah Omar, personally coordinates himself with fighters from Lashkar- e-Taiba during recent operations.

Qatar has played a key role in influencing developments in Afghanistan by resorting to the unusual step of hosting the Taliban’s “political office” in Doha since early 2012. This move allowed the Taliban to begin engaging various countries, including the United States (United States), Russia and China, even as it continued its campaign of terrorism in Afghanistan and the group’s main leaders remained on various global lists of sanctioned terrorists. It is widely believed that Qatar helped rock the controversial US-Taliban peace deal of February 2020 in return for US help to Qatar to restore strained relations with other Council members. cooperation agencies, in particular the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The peace deal with the Taliban, though now seen as flawed, has also helped to beautify Qatar’s credentials as a regional actor in the Arab world.

For the Taliban, Qatar remains an essential base from which to reach out to the Arab world and the wider world community. The Taliban are also looking to Qatar to help them resume their activities at Kabul airport. Qatar was among the first countries to send flights to Kabul with humanitarian aid after the United States completed the withdrawal of its forces on August 30.

Russia, who did not hide his joy at seeing the end of the American presence in Afghanistan, had reached out to the Taliban and even launched the “troika” format for talks on Afghanistan with China and the United States . The group then evolved into the “extended troika” with the inclusion of Pakistan, which Russia very publicly adopted as a partner in shaping developments in Afghanistan. Russia’s special envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, even went so far as to suggest that India was not part of the enlarged troika because it had no influence over the Taliban. Publicly, Russian officials say their engagement with the Taliban is aimed at combating ISIS, particularly ISIS-Khorasan in Afghanistan, although experts believe the move is part of Moscow’s efforts to expand its influence in a region she has been considering since the days of the Great Game.

The Taliban see Russia as another international partner that is less likely to be influenced by concepts such as securing women’s rights and preserving the gains made over the past 20 years under democratic order and constitutionally supported by the United States and its partners. However, there are reports that even Iran remains suspicious of Russia’s plans and role in Afghanistan.

Turkey has long envisioned a presence in Afghanistan for a variety of factors, including the presence of large Turkish groups that make up just over 10% of the population. Recognizing the Taliban would fit in with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s long-standing plans to shape a big role for his country in the wider Muslim world. Turkey’s long-standing close ties to Pakistan have also helped it in Afghanistan, and Erdoğan appreciated what he described as the Taliban’s recent “moderate comments”. Turkey, he said, is drawing up plans “in line with the new realities on the ground” and is open to cooperation because the Taliban have been “very sensitive to relations” with Turkey.

In the short term, the Taliban are looking to Turkey to resume operations at Kabul airport, where a Turkish technical team is already carrying out repairs. Qari Din Mohammad Hanif, head of the Taliban political bureau’s department for Turkey and Russia, met with the Turkish ambassador in Kabul on Sunday to discuss the reopening of Kabul airport and mutual cooperation. Turkey, which was part of the NATO mission, had been responsible for security at the airport for six years. Keeping the airport open is essential to keeping Afghanistan connected to the world and sustaining the flow of humanitarian aid.