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Tuesday, April 20, 2021

April Bull Day? Bitcoin just closed its best March and first quarter in 8 years

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Bitcoin (BTC) had its most successful first quarter in eight years as the ides of March failed to materialize for hodlers.

Data released by analysis resource Bybt at the end of the first quarter of 2021 showed that BTC / USD gained more in the first three months of this year than any other since 2013.

BTC price gains 103% in Q1

Although it did not recover from all-time highs until the start of the second quarter, Bitcoin had a rare performance in March – normally that month sees negative returns.

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Table of monthly BTC / USD returns. Source: Bybt

Not only did the largest cryptocurrency rise almost 30% this time around, it also posted its highest price in history of $ 61,700.

Zooming out, the first quarter of 2021 saw only green candles each month for a combined quarterly increase of 103.1%. The last year to surpass this was also 2013 when the price was below $ 100, with a first quarter performance of 539%.

1 month candle log chart BTC / USD (Bitstamp). Source: Tradingview

The anticipation for the next few months is already building. The second quarter is traditionally the strongest time of the year for Bitcoin with only two years of negative returns, both below 10%. The target to beat is 2019, which generated 159% gains, and is the best Q2 since 2013.

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Right on track

Just looking at the raw performance data thus gives the impression that Bitcoin is performing exactly as expected within one year of the overall subsidy halving, traditionally the largest in each four-year halving cycle. .

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Comparing this cycle to previous ones – and from 2021 to 2013 and 2017 – meanwhile, regardless of all-time highs, Bitcoin hasn’t actually done anything out of the ordinary.

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By uploading the latest version of a chart showing price movements after each halving, quantitative analyst PlanB has put an end to fears that BTC / USD has gained too quickly in recent months.

“Bitcoin currently between 2013 and 2017 runs”, he abstract to Twitter followers.

Bitcoin price comparison after halving against stock-flow targets. Source: PlanB / Twitter

As UKTN reported, PlanB’s stock-flow price models call for an average price of $ 100,000 or $ 288,000 this cycle, with the former now probably being too conservative as a top.