The red wave that Republicans are trying to turn into reality is not happening in major Senate races.
Polls do not yet show a red wave for Republicans
Simon Rosenberg recently tweeted:
Latest Senate Polls, @FiveThirtyEight:
PA Fetterman 46-37 ounces
NC Beasley 44-40 Budd
GA Warnock 47-47 Walker
CO Bennett +13
UT Lee 41-37 McMullin
OH Ryan 44-41 Vance
W. A. Murray 51-40 Smiley
NV Cortez Masto 48-27 Laxalt
No red waves to be found here.
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) June 16, 2022
Blue-collar Democratic Senate candidates are doing well in Pennsylvania and Ohio
If the Democrats win Pennsylvania, their chances of keeping the Senate go down the likely column. We’ve discussed Pennsylvania elsewhere, but the Keystone State is the only place where Trump’s meddling and terrible endorsements could cost Republicans a shot at a Senate majority. Republicans are running a much-hated Mehmet Oz against a popular Lt. Governor in John Fetterman, who came out of the gates with a strong message and took a 9-point lead.
JD Vance is going to struggle in Ohio, as another Trump endorsement who won a crowded primary but isn’t that popular with voters. Rep. Ryan is a blue-collar, working-class populist and, like Fetterman, the kind of Democrat who has the potential to do very well in an anti-incumbent year.
North Carolina and the absence of a red wave
The open Senate seat in North Carolina is one that challenges the red wave idea.
According to the WRAL poll, Democrat Cheri Beasley leads Trump-endorsed Rep. Ted Budd: “While 44% of respondents said they would support Beasley, 40% preferred Budd, according to the poll. About one in seven likely voters were undecided. Of the 650 likely voters surveyed, 37% were affiliated with the Republican Party, while 34% said they were affiliated with the Democratic Party and 27% identified as independents.
If Republicans can’t keep the seat open in North Carolina, where they’ve already poured tens of millions of dollars into the race to support Budd, there won’t be a red wave and the Democrats could expand their majority.
Even if Republicans win a majority in the House, a Democratic Senate would ensure that any potential impeachment bid for Biden would go nowhere, and any additional Supreme Court vacancies would be filled before the 2024 election.
The country has record gas prices and inflation, but there is no evidence of the kind of red wave that will give Republicans control of both the House and the Senate.
Mr. Easley is the editor. He is also a member of the White House press pool and a congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason holds a bachelor’s degree in political science. His graduate studies focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and the American Political Science Association