Here Are Novavax’s US Vaccine Numbers — And They’re Dismal

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Novavax shares are trading at a two-year low amid slow-rising use of its Covid vaccine, called Nuvaxovid, in the US




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The Food and Drug Administration signed Nuvaxovid in July, six months later Novavax (NVAX) asked the agency to approve the regimen for emergency use. Since then, only 6,278 people have received two doses of the vaccine, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In total, Novavax has delivered approximately 31.2 million doses of the injection in the US

CFRA Research analyst Stewart Glickman previously noted delivery and timing issues for Novavax. An important part of the vaccine comes from the bark of a tree that is common in Chile. The harvesting of these trees is highly regulated.

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“Novavax partially attributed the loss of revenue in the second quarter to timing issues, with sales leaking in the third quarter,” he said in an August note to customers. “But we think the company is in the penalty box and we would now characterize the investment thesis as a ‘show me’ story.”

Novavax Stock: A Limited Launch

Novavax was already at a disadvantage at the time of Nuvaxovid’s launch in the US. Pfizer (PFE) and moderna (MRNA) won their first authorizations in December 2020. Novavax stock ran with the duo through February 2021.

The CDC has also led to a limited US launch of Nuvaxovid. Not all providers received the regimen and pre-ordering was not available for the shot. The US doses would be “targeted at providers with anticipated demand among unvaccinated patients.”

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In the US, that includes about 10% of adults.

Nuvaxovid usage rates will definitely be higher abroad. The shot won its first licenses in Indonesia and the Philippines last November.

Light sales expectations

Still, CFRA’s Glickman doesn’t have high hopes for 2022-23 sales — and that’s reflected in Novavax’s stock performance. After missing expectations for the second quarter, stocks have generally fallen, according to MarketSmith.com.

Glickman now expects revenue of $1.8 billion in 2022 and $2.2 billion next year. After the miss, Novavax lowered its full-year guidance to $2 billion to $2.3 billion in revenue.

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In today’s morning stock market trading, Novavax stock fell 8.9% near 23.60.

Company representatives did not immediately return a request for comment.

Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.

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