Comcast Action (NASDAQ
According to the machine learning engine Trefis, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price data over the past ten years, CMCSA stock returns average close to 8% then three months (63 trading days) period after experiencing a 26% increase in the previous six month period (126 trading days). Notably, however, the stock is likely to surpass the S & P500 over the next three months, with an expected return that would be 4% higher than the S & P500.
But how would those numbers change if you are interested in holding CMCSA shares for a shorter or longer period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine learning to test the chances of CMCSA stocks rising after a drop and vice versa. You can test the chances of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, a month, or even a single day!
MACHINE LEARNING MOTOR – try it yourself:
IF CMCSA shares have changed by -5% over five trading days, THEN Over the next 21 trading days, CMCSA shares move an average of 2%, which implies a return almost in line with that of the S & P500.
More importantly, there is a 57% chance that a positive feedback over the next 21 trading days and 51% chance positive excess return after a variation of -5% over five trading days.
Some fun scenarios, FAQs and making sense of CMCSA stock movements:
Question 1: Is the average Comcast share return higher after a decline?
Reply: Consider two situations,
Case 1: Comcast stock drops -5% or more in a week
Case 2: Comcast stock increases 5% or more in a week
Is the average Comcast share return higher in the next month after case 1 or 2?
CMCSA action fares better after case 1, with an average yield of 1.9% during the following month (21 trading days) in case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a loss of 5% compared to the previous week), against an average return of 0.6% for case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days in Case 1, and an average return of only 0.5% for Case 2, as detailed in our dashboard. which details the average return of the S&P 500 after falling or rising.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how the Comcast stock is likely to behave after a specific gain or loss over a period of time.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
Reply: If you buy and hold Comcast stock, over time there is an expectation that short-term fluctuations will cancel out and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and calculations from Trefis’ machine learning engine, patience absolutely pays for most of the stock!
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait a while?
Reply: The average return after a rise is generally lower than after a fall, as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, however, if a stock has won in the last few days, you’d better avoid short-term bets for most stocks.
It is quite powerful to test the trend of the Comcast stock yourself by changing the entries in the charts above.
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