New York will soon lose 1 seat in the House. The GOP could lose 5.

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Democrats will likely target the only Republican-leaning seat in New York City, the 11th District, anchored to Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn. First-term Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis now sits in the seat, but adding more liberal sections of Brooklyn or even Lower Manhattan could make it untenable for a Republican.

The biggest gains could come from the upstate, the area most likely to lose a district altogether. Mr Wasserman suggested that cartographers could try to group voters into two conservative mega-districts. At the same time, the party could consolidate two of its incumbents in the rotating seats in the Hudson Valley, Mr. Maloney and Representative Antonio Delgado.

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A red seat could be created in western New York by combining the vast Southern Tier district held by retired Republican Tom Reed with the territory between Buffalo and Rochester, represented by Chris Jacobs, also a Republican. A second could be rooted in the Adirondacks, combining areas of central and northern New York City represented by Republicans Claudia Tenney and Elise Stefanik, a rising star who is now her party’s most senior woman in Washington.

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Targeting the other remaining Republican in the region, John Katko, would be less straightforward. One of the few moderate Republicans left in the House to vote to impeach former President Donald J. Trump, Katko has repeatedly won his Syracuse-based district despite Democratic advantages.

The commission will also propose new lines for the State Assembly and Senate, but lawmakers in Albany might as well reject them to produce a result more favorable to Democrats looking to lock in their dominance for years to come. . Democratic senators, in particular, are considering changes to districts they say were destroyed by Republicans in the last cycle while they still controlled the chamber.

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State Senator Robert G. Ortt, the Republican leader, said he was troubled by signs that Democrats would undermine the process that voters chose before it began. He suggested the Democrats, led in Washington by President Nancy Pelosi, had few other options to cling to power: “They know the only way for her to remain a speaker is to do this type of gerrymandering,” he said.

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