Overreacting to week 1 results or good or bad NFL team performance in any given week is quite common in the betting market. Gamblers often fall victim to ‘recent bias’, remembering and reacting to what they have most recently seen. Week 2 of the NFL season has been filled with over-reactions and many major adjustments by bookmakers, knowing that bettors will pit against the perceived good teams that did well in the opening week, and bet against the bad teams that fell short of expectations.
But Week 2 also has some top teams and preseason Super Bowl candidates who lost in Week 1. It wasn’t the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, who kicked off Week 2 with a thrilling Thursday night feature. The Chargers (1-1) won against the Chiefs (2-0) 401-319 yards and ran 74 plays to 54 for the Chiefs. But a 99-yard interception touchdown from the fourth quarter was the difference, as the Chiefs took a 24-17 lead and won 27-24, but couldn’t cover the -3.5 point spread.
Bet favorites are now 10-6-1 straight up (SU) and 7-10 against the spread (ATS) this season heading into Sunday Week 2 action. Scoring was lower in Week 1 and averaged just 42.06 points per game, with all three prime time games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights falling below the total.
There were a record 10 road favorites in Week 1, and those teams went straight up 6-3-1 (SU) and 4-6 against the spread (ATS). There are five road favorites in Week 2, along with five division games headlined by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in New Orleans Saints, followed by the Chicago Bears in Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football.
Week 2 Biggest Favorites
Preseason perceptions of teams expected to conference and Super Bowl contenders are also in play for Week 2. Of the six teams that are the biggest betting favorites in Week 2, five lost in Week 1 — the Rams, Packers, 49ers, Bengals and Broncos. Only the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills won in Week 1, and the Bills face the Titans on Monday night while the Packers take on the Bears in the Sunday night feature.
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- Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-10), total 46.5
- Houston Texans in Denver Broncos (-10), total 45.5
- Seattle Seahawks on San Francisco 49ers (-8.5), total 40.5
- Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys, total 41.5
- Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10.5), total 41.5
- Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-10), total 46.5
Of the biggest favorites, the Bengals and Broncos are the most bets, each taking over 80% of the spread (handle) as of Friday at FanDuel Sportsbook.
ATS tips and trends
From the Playbook Sports newsletter:
- Green Bay is 9-0 SU/ATS in regular season games when he lost to head coach Matt LaFleur. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is also a remarkable 23-5 SU against the Bears.
- San Francisco is 0-9-1 ATS marking in the last 10 games as home favorites in the division. Seattle is on a 7-1 ATS run when it takes 6 or more points as an underdog.
- NFL teams in Game 2 of the season, taking a double-digit win in Game 1 (Bills) are only 101-124-12 (45%) since 1990. When faced with opponents coming from a favorite SU loss (Titans) 17-37-2 ATS (31.5%) – includes 4-16 ATS (20%) as non-division favorite (Bills).
Bet types and how to read the odds?
But in addition to the spread, total and moneyline bets, there are dozens of ways to bet on NFL games and increase your engagement, entertainment and endgame results. Betting props and promotions, including Same Game Parlays, are popular bets for gamblers who like to bet a little and win a lot.
Week 2 Competitive Matches and Spreads
- Washington commanders at Detroit Lions (-1), total 48.5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints, total 43.5
- Carolina Panthers (-1) at New York Giants, total 43.5
- New England Patriots (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers, total 40.5
- Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars, total 43.5
- Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5), total 43.5
- New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-6.5), total 39.6
- Arizona Cardinals at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5), total 51.5
- Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5), total 51.5 (Monday)
The teams with the lowest stakes and support against the spread (ATS) on Sunday are the Colts and Texans, who were right last week, taking less than 20% of the spread points money along with the Cowboys. The Bears, Cardinals and Patriots also take less than 40% of the money spread.
The updated Super Bowl futures and bets on FanDuel Sportsbook include the Bills (+500), Chiefs (+700) and Buccaneers (+750) as the leading favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy and Super Bowl LVII on February 12, 2023 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ. The Eagles (+1300) have risen sharply, while the Vikings (+2200) are the biggest movers from week 1 with their chances of winning the Super Bowl nearly halved. The Eagles and Vikings play Monday night in Philadelphia as part of Monday night’s doubleheader
Highest scoring matches in week 2
According to FanDuel Sportsbook odds, the Arizona Cardinals in Las Vegas Raiders (+450) are expected to be the highest scoring game of the week. Both teams lost in Week 1, and the Cardinals allowed a week-high 44 points and 488 yards in regulation in a 44-21 beatdown by the Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders return to Las Vegas after losing 24-19 to the Los Angeles Chargers in a game where they had 3 turnovers and had a minus (-3) turnover margin.
The betting data changes every day with most weekend bets being taken closer to kick-off. Live bets are then wagered during the games as more fans stay involved in the games and in-play betting. Follow the NFL odds along with NFL news, predictions, picks and FanDuel TV as you enjoy the games and find more ways to win.
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