The share price of HP Inc. peaked at 52 weeks of $ 36 in May of this year, but has since fallen from that level. Additionally, the stock has fallen more than 5% over the past week, to $ 28 currently, largely due to a decline in the broader markets. However, HP reported strong earnings for the third quarter of 2021 (HPQ’s fiscal year ends in October), with revenues reaching $ 15.3 billion, up from $ 14.3 billion in the third quarter of 2020. COGS was flat at $ 11.9 billion, and other operating expenses grew more slowly than the increase. in revenue, operating profit increased from $ 779 million to $ 1.38 billion during this period. Despite an increase in the effective tax rate, EPS fell from $ 0.52 in Q3 ’20 to $ 0.94 in Q3 ’21.
However, after falling 5% over the past week, will HP stock continue its bearish course over the next few weeks, or is a stock rally imminent? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price using ten years of historical data, HP stock returns on average 2.5% during the following month (twenty-one trading days) after experiencing a decrease of 4% compared to the previous week (five trading days).
But how would those numbers change if you wanted to hold HP stocks for a longer or shorter period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Chances of increasing shares of HP Inc. after a fall. You can test the chances of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, a month, or even a single day!
MACHINE LEARNING MOTOR – try it yourself:
IF HP Inc. stock has moved -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days, HP stock is moving an average of 2.5%, with an average probability of 58.3% of a positive return over this period.
Some fun scenarios, FAQs and explanation of stock movements from HP Inc .:
Question 1: Is the average return on HP stocks higher after a decline?
Reply: Consider two situations,
Case 1: HP stock drops 5% or more in a week
Case 2: HP stock increases by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return on HP shares higher in the next month after Case 1 or Case 2?
HP Stock fares better after case 1, with an average return of 2.5% during the following month (21 trading days) in case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a loss of 5% during the previous week), against an average return 2.1% for case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days in case 1, and an average return of only 0.5% for case 2, as detailed in our dashboard. which details the average return of the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how HP stocks are likely to perform after a specific gain or loss over a period of time.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
Reply: If you buy and hold HP stocks, over time you expect short-term fluctuations to cancel out and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong. .
All in all, according to data and calculations from the machine learning engine Trefis, patience absolutely pays for most actions!
For HP stocks, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days are detailed in the table below, along with the returns of the S & P500:
You can try out the engine to see what this chart looks like for HP after a larger loss in the past week, month, or quarter.
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait a while?
Reply: The average return after a rise is naturally lower than that after a fall, as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, however, if a stock has won in the last few days, you’d better avoid short-term bets for most stocks.
It is powerful enough to test the trend of HP Inc. stocks yourself by changing the entries in the charts above.
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